Markets are red, but Starknet is green. STRK, the token powering Ethereum Layer 2 Starknet, is rallying while most majors slip, an unusual divergence coming just ahead of fresh supply hitting the market.
Whats moving: a snapshot of price, supply, and on-chain context
After a sluggish 2025, STRK has caught a bid this month. Its up roughly 40% over the last 30 days and around 26% today, trading near $0.17 with a market capitalization of about $770 million. Thats still a long way from its February 2024 token generation event (TGE), when STRK opened near $2b more than 96% higher than todays level.
Even with ongoing token emissions, STRK has edged 16% higher since April 1. For context, Bitcoin was around $85,000 on that same date.
Supply overhang vs. staking absorption
About 127 million STRK (roughly $21.5 million at current prices) has been entering circulation each month since April, with another tranche set to land in the coming hours. A larger supply event looms too: investor and team unlocks begin in less than three weeks.
On the other side of that equation, staking is quietly soaking up float. Starknet said the network surpassed 900 million staked STRK, worth over $150 million, which represents around 20% of the circulating supply. If sustained, staking can help offset selling pressure from recurring unlocks by removing tokens from active circulation, though yield-driven deposits can reverse quickly in risk-off markets.
TVL is recovering, but its concentrated
Starknets aggregate on-chain metrics are improving in Q4. Per L2Beat, Starknet is the sixth-largest Layer 2 by value secured. Total value locked has climbed about 200% from its July local bottom.
One venue is doing heavy lifting. The Extended perpetuals DEX accounts for just over 40% of Starknets TVL. Extendeds deposits nearly doubled in October, from roughly $55 million to $96 million, a surge likely aided by the airdrop-farming wave that kicked off in September. That concentration cuts both ways: it showcases product-market fit for perps on Starknet, but it also introduces an ecosystem dependence on one protocols incentives and retention strategy.
Price drivers: narratives and positioning
Theres also a narrative tailwind. Privacy-oriented tokens like Zcash (ZEC) and Monero (XMR) have outpaced the broader market. Starknets co-founder, Eli Ben-Sasson, played a key role in ZECs early days, linking Starknet to the broader zero-knowledge and privacy discourseb even though Starknet itself is a general-purpose validity rollup rather than a privacy chain. In thin markets, those narrative overlaps can amplify short-term flows.
The competitive race among L2s
As an STARK-powered rollup, Starknet competes with a crowded field of EVM-centric Layer 2s. The rebound in TVL and growth in staking suggest the network is tightening its core community ahead of major unlocks. Sustained momentum will hinge on whether activity broadens beyond a single perp DEX into payments, gaming, and DeFi primitives built natively for Cairo and STARK proofs.
Why this matters
- Divergence signal: STRK rallying on a red day hints at idiosyncratic buyers, not just beta.
- Supply stress test: With monthly emissions and a larger unlock approaching, price resilience will test real demand.
- Ecosystem depth: TVL growth concentrated in one protocol raises questions about stickiness post-incentives.
- Staking dynamics: Locking 20% of circulating supply can dampen sell pressurebuntil yields or sentiment flip.
Risks and what to watch
- Upcoming unlocks: Monitor near-term 127M STRK emissions and the investor/team unlock in under three weeks for liquidity shocks.
- Concentration risk: If Extendeds incentives fade, Starknets TVL could retrace; diversification of top protocols is key.
- Macro beta: A deeper market drawdown could overwhelm network-specific positives.
Bottom line: Starknet is showing real signs of recoverybprice strength, rising TVL, and a sizable staked basebeven as new supply approaches. The next month will reveal whether this bid is structural or a narrative-driven sprint.