Polymarket just cleared a major U.S. hurdle: the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) approved an Amended Order of Designation that lets the prediction market open access to Americans through Futures Commission Merchants (FCMs), or registered futures brokers, according to PRNewswire.
What changed
The order enables "intermediated" access in the United States. Instead of users connecting directly to Polymarket, U.S. customers will be able to go through FCMs and other traditional market infrastructure that already complies with CFTC rules.
This pathway is designed to fit Polymarket's onchain prediction venues into a regulated framework familiar to U.S. brokers and risk managers.
How U.S. users may access the market
FCMs are licensed futures brokers that hold customer funds and route orders. By working with these firms, Polymarket can rely on existing compliance processes for identity checks and customer protections while keeping its core product focused on event markets.
Details like which FCMs will participate and when access flips on were not disclosed in the announcement.
Prediction markets are heating up
Trading across event markets has surged. Volumes on both Polymarket and rival Kalshi are on pace to set new monthly records in November, helped by the New York City mayoral race and strong interest in sports markets.
Company perspective
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan framed the move as a step toward clearer, more accountable markets in the U.S., saying the approval lets the company operate with the maturity and transparency the regulator expects and continue to show leadership as a regulated American venue.
Market reaction
Traders immediately repriced the odds of a U.S. rollout. The Polymarket contract "Will Polymarket US go Live in 2025?" jumped from 65c to as high as 88c before sliding back to 74c.
Backstory: a turbulent year
The decision arrives roughly a year after federal agents searched Coplan's home over alleged violations tied to U.S. betting. The episode fueled a public spat between Polymarket and Kalshi, including an X post alleging Kalshi paid influencers to criticize Coplan following the raid.
Why this matters
- Regulatory clarity: A CFTC-approved channel gives U.S. users a compliant way to access event markets.
- Mainstream reach: FCMs already serve hedge funds, trading firms, and active retail, which could expand liquidity quickly.
- Category validation: The move signals that regulated structures for event contracts can coexist with crypto-native rails.
- Competitive pressure: Kalshi and Polymarket are now racing to capture the same U.S. demand.
What to watch
- Which FCMs sign on and when U.S. onboarding starts.
- The scope of allowed markets (politics, sports, macro events) at launch.
- Whether record volumes persist after the election cycle and sports calendar peaks.
- How pricing and fees compare between intermediated U.S. access and Polymarket's existing global product.
Bottom line: The CFTC's green light gives Polymarket a regulated bridge into the United States just as interest in prediction markets hits new highs. If major brokers plug in, liquidity could climb fast—and the race with Kalshi will only intensify.